Remodeling Magazine releases 2019 Cost vs. Value Report

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Jan. 23, 2019 – Remodeling Magazine released its 32nd annual Cost vs. Value Report, which compares the cost of popular remodeling projects to how much the investment will improve a home's resale value.

The 2019 report surveyed more than 3,200 real estate professionals about returns for 22 projects in 136 U.S. markets, an increase from 100 markets last year. The full report is posted online.

For all projects, the overall cost-to-value ratio is 66.1 percent, which is slightly ahead of last year but well below the decade-high of 71.2 percent in 2014.

As in prior years, there are significant variations in different regions. The average payback nationwide for the 22 projects in the 2019 Cost vs. Value report ranges from a high of 123.8 percent for a garage door replacement in the Pacific region, to a low of 45.0 percent for an upscale master suite addition in the mid-Atlantic region.

"With the increasing costs of building materials and labor, we urge remodelers to think like real-estate professionals first," says Clayton DeKorne, editor-in-chief of Remodeling Magazine. "When you adjust your focus to think like a broker first, you can dull clients' No. 1 pain point – cost – with a discussion of the amount that can be recouped, then go on to show them how to think like a remodeler by raising their understanding and appreciation of the total value, not just resale value, of a home."

Due in large part to sharp increases in material costs, the percentage of costs recouped at sale time is trending downward for all the replacement projects. Material costs tend to comprise a greater proportion of replacement projects compared with larger indoor remodels, however, which have a higher percentage of labor costs.

2019 top 10 projects by percentage of cost recouped

1. Garage door replacement (97.5%)

2. 2Manufactured stone veneer (94.9%)

3. Mid-range minor kitchen remodel (80.5%)

4. Wood deck addition (75.6%)

5. Siding replacement (75.6%)

6. Steel entry door replacement (74.9%)

7. Vinyl window replacement (73.4%)

8. Fiberglass grand entrance (71.9%)

9. Wood window replacement (70.8%)

10. Composite deck addition (69.1%)

Highlights from 2019 report

1.Rising materials costs impact rates of returnWhile the overall changes are modest, the latest Cost vs. Value report reflects the robust market the remodeling industry has enjoyed over the past year. But costs have correspondingly increased, and in some cases, significantly so. These increases are likely due to the tariffs that have roiled commodity markets, which have led to a slight downturn in the percentage of costs recouped for some projects; but overall, returns are up slightly compared to last year.

2.Curb appeal projects continue to provide the highest returns
Nine out of the top 10 high-return projects are exterior replacement – or high curb appeal – projects. The three exterior projects with the highest recoup on investment are garage door replacement (97.5%), manufactured stone veneer installation (94.9%), and a wood deck addition (75.6%). Siding replacement and window projects also provided high returns, with the highest recouping interior project being a minor kitchen remodel (80.5%).

3.New for 2019
Two new projects were added to the 2019 Cost vs. Value Report. The first is a roofing replacement job that adds standing-seam metal roofing. Compared with asphalt shingles, metal roofing costs significantly more but brings with it much greater durability. The second project is a revamp of the universal design bathroom, which was first introduced to Cost vs. Value in 2017. While the overall dimensions and features of the current project are comparable, the finishes and mechanicals – including tiled walls and shower, humidity-controlled ventilation and radiant-heat floors – are more consistent with an upscale project than the previous specs allowed.

4.Think like a broker
The reason for high returns on exterior projects, and especially façade facelifts, stems from the valuations set by the real estate community. "Curb appeal" and "first impressions" are central to a real estate professional's estimation of resale value. Granted, a home's exterior will only persuade potential buyers to see more, and first impressions can vary from one individual to the next. But the impact these impressions make is critical in setting the stage for what a buyer is willing to pay for a home.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

Fla.’s housing market: Median prices, inventory up in Dec.

ORLANDO, Fla. – Jan. 22, 2019 – Florida's housing market reported higher median prices and increased inventory (active listings) in December compared to a year ago, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. However, buyer uncertainty from rising mortgage rates and the federal government's shutdown may have impacted home sales, which were lower than the level of sales a year ago. Sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 20,633 last month, down 9.9 percent compared to December 2017.

"Florida's housing sector is continuing to show signs that inventory levels are finally easing in many local markets after being constrained for a long time," says 2019 Florida Realtors President Eric Sain, =""> statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $185,000, up 2.8 percent over the year-ago figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the national median sales price for existing single-family homes in November 2018 was $260,500, up 5 percent from the previous year; the national median existing condo price was $554,760; in Massachusetts, it was $395,000; in Colorado, it was $375,000; and in New York, it was $275,000.

Looking at Florida's condo-townhouse market in December, statewide closed sales totaled 8,156, down 11.4 percent compared to a year ago. Closed sales data continued to show fewer short sales and foreclosures in November: Short sales for condo-townhouse properties declined 39.7 percent and foreclosures fell 33.7 percent year-to-year; while short sales for single-family homes dropped 49.8 percent and foreclosures fell 26.8 percent year-to-year. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

"Notably, this year-over-year decline in sales for December was felt across the nation, not just in Florida, which is evidence that interest rates played at least some role in dampening the number of closings," says Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O'Connor. "Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates began to ramp up in September and had reached a multi-year high of close to 5 percent by mid-October, which is typically when financed sales closing in December go under contract."

Interest rates likely will continue to play a role in determining the direction of Florida's housing markets going forward, O'Conner adds. "Homebuyers considering sitting on the fence until prices come down might want to take note that we're also likely to see significantly higher mortgage rates by that point. While there has been a slight softening in the pace of home price growth since mid-2018, there are currently no signs that Florida home values will experience any wholesale declines over the next year."

Potential homebuyers should also note that Florida's active listings – or inventory levels of for-sale homes – have been trending up across the state, according to O'Connor.

"Statewide, active listings of existing single-family homes have been on the rise since July, which has helped contribute to the softening of price growth, and they continued to climb in December," he says. "At year's end, inventory was up over 13 percent compared to the end of 2017. Importantly, inventory levels are now rising across most of the pricing spectrum, including in some of the more affordable ranges."

According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.64 percent in December 2018, up from the 3.95 percent averaged during the same month a year earlier.

To see the full statewide housing activity reports, go to Florida Realtors Research & Statistics section on floridarealtors.org. Realtors also have access to local market stats (password protected) on Florida Realtors' website.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

NAR: U.S. home sales down 6.4% in Dec.

WASHINGTON – Jan. 22, 2019 – After two consecutive months of increases, existing-home sales declined in the month of December, according to the National Association of Realtors®(NAR). None of the four major U.S. regions saw a gain in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.99 million in December. Sales are now down 10.3 percent from a year ago (5.56 million in December 2017).

Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, says current housing numbers are partly a result of higher interest rates.

"The housing market is obviously very sensitive to mortgage rates," Yun says. "Softer sales in December reflected consumer search processes and contract signing activity in previous months when mortgage rates were higher than today. Now, with mortgage rates lower, some revival in home sales is expected going into spring."

The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $253,600, up 2.9 percent from December 2017 ($246,500). December's price increase marks the 82nd straight month of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of December decreased to 1.55 million, down from 1.74 million existing homes available for sale in November, but that's a year-to-year inventor increase from 1.46 million.

Unsold inventory is at a 3.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.9 last month and up from 3.2 months a year ago.

Homes also stayed on the market a bit longer before securing a contract. They typically stayed on the market for 46 days in December, up from 42 days in November and 40 days a year ago. However, 39 percent of homes sold in December were on the market for less than a month.

"Several consecutive months of rising inventory is a positive development for consumers and could lead to slower home price appreciation," says Yun. "But there is still a lack of adequate inventory on the lower-priced points and too many in upper-priced points."

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 4.64 percent in December from 4.87 percent in November. The average commitment rate for all of 2017 was 3.99 percent.

"The partial shutdown of the federal government has not had a significant effect on December closings, but the uncertainty of a shutdown has the potential to harm the market," says NAR President John Smaby. "Once the government is fully reopened, I am hopeful that housing transactions will increase."

First-time buyers were responsible for 32 percent of sales in December, down from November (33 percent), but the same year-to-year.

All-cash sales accounted for 22 percent of transactions in December, up from November and a year ago (21 and 20 percent, respectively). Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 13 percent of homes in December, which is unchanged from November but down year-to-year (16 percent).

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 2 percent of sales in December, unchanged from 2 percent last month and down from 5 percent a year ago.

Single-family and condo/co-op sales
Single-family home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.45 million in December, down from 4.71 million in November, and 10.1 percent below the 4.95 million sales pace one year earlier. The median existing single-family home price was $255,200 in December, up 2.9 percent from December 2017.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 540,000 units in December, down 12.9 percent from last month and down 11.5 percent from a year ago. The median existing condo price was $240,600 in December, which is up 2.3 percent from a year ago.

Regional breakdownDecember existing-home sales in the Northeast decreased 6.8 percent to an annual rate of 690,000 and also 6.8 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $283,400, which is up 8.2 percent from December 2017.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales fell 11.2 percent from last month to an annual rate of 1.19 million in December, down 10.5 percent overall from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $191,300, unchanged from last year.

Existing-home sales in the South dropped 5.4 percent to an annual rate of 2.09 million in December, down 8.7 percent from last year. The median price in the South was $224,300, up 2.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West dipped 1.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.02 million in December, and 15 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $374,400, up 0.2 percent from December 2017.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

​

FAU study: Market overheated but buyer demand still high

BOCA RATON, Fla. – Jan. 18, 2019 – National housing prices as a whole are slightly overheated and residential real estate markets are experiencing minimal downward pressure on the demand for homeownership, according to a new study from faculty at the Florida Atlantic University College of Business.

The study's author, Ken Johnson, Ph.D., a real estate economist with FAU's College of Business, said the U.S. is nearing the peak of the current housing cycle, evidenced by the fact that property prices around the country are increasing but at a decreasing rate, meaning property appreciation is slowing.

The study, "Where Are We Now with Housing: A Report," investigates and compares the current status of U.S. housing at a national level with that of housing at the peak of the last cycle in July 2006.

"All evidence is suggesting that the national housing market is peaking," Johnson says. "However, this time around, from a national perspective, things should turn out quite differently."

Based on scores from the Beracha, Hardin & Johnson Buy vs. Rent Index, which Johnson co-authors, and data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Home Price NSA Index, the study finds that housing prices are currently 7.3 percent above their long-term pricing trend, but with minimal downward pressure on the demand for homeownership.

For comparison, at the peak of the last housing cycle, prices were 31 percent above their long-term pricing trend. Johnson's BH&J Index was nearing a score of 1 (the highest possible score) in the summer of 2006, indicating extreme downward pressure on the demand for homeownership. Today, that score stands at .039.

"It looks like we're in for more of a very high tide, as opposed to a tsunami, as residential prices peak in this latest cycle," Johnson says. "At a minimum, we can expect flatter housing price growth. At worst, we could experience price declines slightly below the long-term pricing trend."

Johnson's research is based on a national composite of housing prices and estimates of the downward pressure on the demand for homeownership, so the housing picture in some cities will look vastly different from others. For instance, three metropolitan markets – Dallas, Denver and Houston – are all currently significantly above their long-term housing price trends, with very high scores on the BH&J Index.

© 2019 Florida Realtors®

Thinking of Buying or Selling a Waterfront Home?