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No lapse in NFIP yet: Congress passed an extension to keep it going until Nov. 21 – the 13th time it’s been extended. President Trump is expected to sign the bill.
WASHINGTON – Don’t expect a lapse – not yet anyway – in the National Flood Insurance Program, the country’s largest flood insurer. The program has been set to expire on Sept. 30, but the U.S. Senate recently passed an extension that would keep the program afloat until Nov. 21. The House had previously passed the extension.
The bill is expected to be signed by President Donald Trump.
This extension will mark the 13th time the program – which is billions of dollars in debt – has been rescued by lawmakers with extensions. The NFIP provides flood insurance coverage to 22,000 communities nationwide and protects property owners against loss from flooding, the most common and costly natural disaster in the U.S.
Federal law requires the purchase of flood insurance for a federally backed mortgage in special flood hazard areas designated by FEMA. Private flood insurance is also available in many high-risk areas, but the NFIP may be the only option for some homeowners.
Any lapse in NFIP funding could jeopardize up to 40,000 home sales a month, the National Association of Realtors® has warned in the past. NAR has long called on long-term reforms to the program. NAR supports reforms to the National Flood Insurance Program, including calls to strengthen flood mapping and mitigation and the development of more private-market flood insurance options.
Meteorologists warn that rising sea levels and increasingly powerful storms will continue to threaten more areas with flooding.
Source: REALTOR® Magazine
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
Pending sales went up 1.6%, reversing the prior month’s decrease, and year-over-year contract signings jumped 2.5%. NAR economist calls it “very encouraging.”
WASHINGTON – Pending home sales reversed course in August after a prior month of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Each of the four major regions in the study reported both month-over-month growth and year-over-year gains in contract activity.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings – climbed 1.6% to 107.3 in August, reversing the prior month’s decrease. Year-over-year contract signings jumped 2.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity.
“It is very encouraging that buyers are responding to exceptionally low interest rates,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “The notable sales slump in the West region over recent years appears to be over. Rising demand will reaccelerate home price appreciation in the absence of more supply.
Regional breakdown: All regional indices were up compared to July, with the highest gain in the West region. The PHSI in the Northeast rose 1.4% to 94.3 and is now 0.7% higher than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index increased 0.6% to 101.7 in August, 0.2% higher than August 2018.
Pending home sales in the South increased 1.4% to an index of 124.4 in August, a 1.8% bump from last August. The index in the West grew 3.1% to 96.4, an increase of 8.0% from a year ago.
Yun says that historically low interest rates will affect economic growth, especially home buying, going forward.
“With interest rates expected to remain low, home sales are forecasted to rise in the coming months and into 2020,” says Yun. “Unfortunately, so far in 2019, new home construction is down 2.0%. The hope is that housing starts quickly move into higher gear to meet the higher demand. Moreover, broader economic growth will strengthen from increased housing activity.”
NAR forecasts home sales to rise 0.6% in 2019 and another 3.4% in 2020. Housing starts are predicted to increase by 2.0% in 2019 and jump an additional 10.6% in 2020, which in turn raises GDP to growth at 2.0% in 2020.
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
The index gauging builders’ attitudes hit 68 this month. Readings above 50 are considered positive territory, and they’ve been in the mid- to upper 60s since May.
WASHINGTON – Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 68 in September from an upwardly revised August reading of 67, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Any reading above 50 is considered positive territory, and sentiment levels have held in the mid- to upper 60s since May.
“Low interest rates and solid demand continue to fuel builders’ sentiments even as they continue to grapple with ongoing supply-side challenges that hinder housing affordability, including a shortage of lots and labor,” says National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Chairman Greg Ugalde.
“Solid household formations and attractive mortgage rates are contributing to a positive builder outlook,” adds NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, builders are expressing growing concerns regarding uncertainty stemming from the trade dispute with China. NAHB’s Home Building Geography Index indicates that the slowdown in the manufacturing sector is holding back home construction in some parts of the nation, although there is growth in rural and exurban areas.”
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 75 and the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 50. The measure charting sales expectations in the next six months fell one point to 70.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast posted a two-point gain to 59, the West was up two points to 75, and the South moved one point higher to 70. The Midwest was unchanged at 57.
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
The Fed cut rates for the second time this year and said it would keep doing what it deems necessary to sustain the U.S. economic expansion. Interest rate cuts have a direct impact on adjustable-rate mortgages and an indirect effect on fixed-rate loans.
WASHINGTON – The Fed cut rates for the second time this year and said it would keep doing what it deems necessary to sustain the U.S. economic expansion. Interest rate cuts have a direct impact on adjustable-rate mortgages and an indirect effect on fixed-rate loans.
In a statement accompanying the announcement, the Fed said the labor market “remains strong,” economic activity has been “rising at a moderate rate,” and household spending “has been rising at a strong pace.”
However, it also noted economic challenges, including “business fixed investment and exports have weakened.”
While Federal Reserve members often unanimously agree on rate changes, the vote this time was 7-3, the largest number of dissents in three years. Two Fed officials voted to keep rates unchanged, while one member argued for a larger half-point cut.
It’s not clear if the Fed will continue to cut rates later this year or not as some have predicted. While a number of Fed officials favor another rate cut soon, at least two officials expect a rate hike.
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
August’s statewide single-family home median price up 4.2% to $265K, sales up 3.2% year-to-year. Condo median price up 2.7% to $190K, sales down 2.9%.
ORLANDO, Fla. – Florida’s housing market reported rising median prices and more pending inventory in August compared to a year ago, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. Sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 27,107 last month, up 3.2% from August 2018.
Pending inventory for single-family existing homes increased 4.5% last month compared to a year ago, while condo-townhouse pending inventory rose 4.8%. Pending inventory is the number of listed properties that were under contract at the end of the month or data collection period.
“Florida’s favorable jobs outlook, latest low unemployment rate of 3.3% (in July) and strong economy are positive trends for the state’s housing market,” says 2019 Florida Realtors President Eric Sain, a Realtor and district sales manager with Illustrated Properties in Palm Beach. “Meanwhile, low mortgage interest rates are continuing to spark homebuyers’ interest in entering the market.
“Because local housing markets are unique, consumers should turn to a local Realtor to find out more about trends and conditions in their area. Your local Realtor can offer expert advice and guidance during the complex homebuying or selling process.”
In August, statewide median sales prices for both single-family homes and condo-townhouse properties rose year-over-year for 92 months in a row. The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes was $265,000, up 4.2% from the previous year, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Last month’s statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $190,000, up 2.7% over the year-ago figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the national median sales price for existing single-family homes in July 2019 was $284,000, up 4.5% from the previous year; the national median existing condo price was $254,300. In California, the statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in July was $607,990; in Massachusetts, it was $439,900; in Maryland, it was $315,000; and in New York, it was $299,950.
Looking at Florida’s condo-townhouse market in August, statewide closed sales totaled 10,062, down 2.9% compared to a year ago. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.
“On a statewide basis, sales and price growth was pretty much in line with what we’ve seen throughout the year,” said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor. “There’s no real relief in sight for the inventory shortage, either, so it looks like this downward trend is going to continue, as well. Interest rates remain a wild card. We’re near record lows on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, but there’s no guarantee we're going to stay down here for any significant length of time.”
According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.62% in August 2019, down significantly from the 4.55% averaged during the same month a year earlier.
To see the full statewide housing activity reports, go to Florida Realtors Research & Statistics sectionon floridarealtors.org. Realtors also have access to local market stats (password protected) on Florida Realtors’ website.
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
Senate Bill 2507, introduced by Scott and Rubio, would allow Canadian snowbirds to stay in the U.S. for up to eight months – an increase from the current six months.
WASHINGTON – Florida’s U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott think Canadians should be allowed to stay in the United States longer than the current mandatory six months, so they introduced the Canadian Snowbirds Act (S. 2507) in Congress.
The legislation would allow some Canadian citizens to spend up to eight months per year vacationing in the United States without penalty. According to the Canadian Embassy, Canadians who visit Florida contribute more than $6.5 billion each year to the state’s economy.
“Tourism is a crucial part of Florida’s booming economy, creating and supporting thousands of jobs all across the Sunshine State,” Rubio said in a statement. “This bill will be a huge boost to our state’s economy by allowing the millions of Canadian snowbirds who visit Florida each year to stay two months longer.”
To become law, the Senate would have to pass S. 2507 and send it to the House for approval. If that happened, it would then need President Trump’s signature to become law.
The bill would allow Canadian citizens over age 50 who own or rent a U.S. residence to remain in the country for up to 240 days each year. The bill prohibits qualifying visitors from working for American employers or seeking public assistance.
Under current laws, Canadians may remain in the United States for up to six months per year. If they stay more than six months, they’re considered U.S. residents for tax purposes and required to pay U.S. federal income taxes on any and all income they earn that year – regardless of which country it was earned in.
According to VISIT Florida, approximately 3.5 million Canadians visited Florida in 2018 alone. The legislation is endorsed by VISIT Florida and the Canadian Snowbird Association.
“This bill is a win-win for people on both sides of the border,” says Karen Huestis, president of Canadian Snowbird Association
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
Instant offers work well for sellers who want quick closings with minimal preparation, but a study by Collateral Analytics found that homeowners make less money than selling their home on the open market – even after backing out a real estate agent’s commission.
NEW YORK – iBuyers – companies that offer homeowners cash upfront for their home with a promise that owners can just walk away – are a relatively new phenomena with new players entering the business every month.
OpenDoor is the largest iBuyer, but the instant-offer market already has other firms involved, such as OfferPad, Zillow Offers, Redfin, Knock, Realogy CataLIST, Perch, Keller Offers and may more.
The real estate industry has been debating the pros and cons of iBuyers, both for the industry and for home sellers, and a study authored by Dr. Michael Sklarz and Dr. Norman Miller with Collateral Analytics took a closer look at the issue in their study, “iBuyers: A new choice for home sellers but at what cost?”
“iBuyers offer quicker closings for sellers who would like to avoid the uncertainty of knowing when and if their home will sell,” the authors say in the study “For motivated sellers who want a predictable sale date and need to move … there is no question that iBuyers have provided a welcome alternative to traditional brokerage.”
The purpose of their study is to “address the question ‘Who are the iBuyers, how do they make money, what risks do they face, and what are the benefits for sellers?’”
Overall, the study found that iBuyers cost homeowners 13-15% of their home’s value. While taking a home to market comes at a cost too – generally a real estate commission – it was better to go with an agent if the seller’s goal is to maximize profit rather than move quickly.
The authors concluded that iBuyer sellers “are paying not just the difference in fees of 2% to 5% more than with traditional agencies, and a generous repair allowance, but another 3% to 5% or more to compensate the iBuyer for liquidity risks and carrying costs. In all, the typical cost to a seller appears to be in the range of 13% to 15% depending on the iBuyer vendor.”
Noting that some buyers want a quick-and-easy sale, the authors believe there’s a place for iBuyers in the market, but “what percentage of the market will want this service remains to be seen.”
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
From Florida Realtors
When asked about the best investment for 10-plus years, 31% picked real estate with millennials the top pro-real estate generation. Only 20% preferred stocks.
NEW YORK – When it comes to how Americans prefer to invest long-term, real estate is still the most favored investment option – 31% said it’s their preferred way to invest money they wouldn’t need for more than 10 years, according to a poll by Bankrate.com.
While real estate has been among the top choices in each of the seven years of Bankrate polling, 31% is the highest percentage to date. The stock market was a distant second, at 20%, while cash investments such as savings accounts or CDs was a close third at 19%. Of the rest, 11% pointed to gold or other precious metals, 7% to bonds, and 4% to Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency.
Contrary to the stereotype about millennials and their propensity to not buy homes, adults age 23-38 prefer real estate more than any other generation (36%), and the age group with the highest preference for cash has shifted to baby boomers.
Overall, however, real estate was the top choice of all generations, including Gen X (ages 39-54 at 31%), baby boomers (ages 55-73 at 30%) and the Silent Generation (ages 74+ at 23%).
“Millennials are higher on real estate than any other age group, have cooled a bit on cash, and still aren’t keen on the stock market when investing for more than 10 years,” says Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com. “Millennials in particular should be turning to the stock market for long-term investing, such as retirement.”
The preference for real estate was virtually the same among all income groups, while households with income of $50,000 per year or more were more than twice as likely to cite the stock market than households with income below $50,000 per year. Lower income households (below $50,000 per year), do have a higher preference for cash investments and gold or other precious metals than households.
Before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a cut in interest rates last month, Bankrate asked whether that would change behaviors. A majority said that lower interest rates will not make them more likely to invest in the stock market, borrow money, or put money into savings accounts or CDs: 40% said they would be more likely to put money in savings accounts or CDs as a result of declining interest rates. Only 33% said they would be more likely to invest in the stock market. Just 26% said they would be more likely to borrow money.
“A Fed interest rate cut is unlikely to influence how consumers manage their finances. Only a minority of Americans say they would save more, invest more, or borrow more as a result,” added McBride. “A rate cut or two is certainly not a reason for consumers to panic. The Fed raised rates nine times in a three- year period. If they walk back one or two of those, savers are still far ahead of where they were for much of the past decade.”
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
Consumers felt better in both the short- and long-term measurements, suggesting optimism for the future and content in the present.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. – As the U.S. entered its longest economic expansion in its history, consumer sentiment among Floridians increased 3.7 points in July to 100.2 – an increase from June’s revised figure of 96.5.
All five components that make up the index increased.
Current conditions
Floridians’ opinions of their personal financial situation now compared with a year ago increased 3.6 points from 93.2 to 96.8, though opinions varied greatly by demographics; male respondents and those under age 60 reported less-favorable opinions. Similarly, opinions as to whether now is a good time to buy a major household item like an appliance increased 3.2 points from 100.3 to 103.5, though men reported less-favorable opinions.
“Overall, these two components showed that views regarding current economic conditions improved among Floridians in July,” says Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Future expectations
The three components corresponding to Floridians’ expectations about future economic conditions also improved. Expectations of personal financial situations a year from now increased 4.5 points from 103.5 to 108.
The outlook of U.S. economic conditions over the next year showed the greatest increase in this month’s reading, up 5.1 points from 92.6 to 97.7.
Finally, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased 2.2 points from 92.7 to 94.9. These expectations are shared by almost all Floridians; however, men again reported less-favorable expectations.
“Despite the divided views by gender, Floridians are overall more optimistic in July,” says Sandoval. “The gain in July’s reading comes from consumers’ expectations about the national economy in the short run.”
Economic indicators have remained positive. July is the 121st consecutive month of gross domestic product growth since the Great Recession, breaking the record of 120 months of economic growth between March 1991 and March 2001. Starting in June 2009, the current growth trend is now the longest economic expansion in U.S. modern history.
In Florida, unemployment peaked at 11.3% in January 2010 as a result of the Great Recession, but Florida’s labor market strengthened with solid job gains statewide and has led to an unemployment rate of 3.4% in June 2019. Compared with a year ago, the number of jobs increased by 218,800 in June, an increase of 2.5%.
Among all industries, education and health services gained the most jobs, followed by professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and construction. The information industry was the only sector losing jobs. Moreover, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in the first quarter of 2019, Florida’s gross state domestic product increased 2.9%.
“Looking ahead, in view of the labor market conditions and current economic outlook, we expect consumer sentiment in Florida to remain high in the coming months, continuing the economic expansion,” Sandoval said.
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
While confidence took a small hit in June (124.3), it rose 11.4 points this month to 135.7, and results should “continue to support robust spending in the near-term.”
BOSTON – The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rebounded 11.4 points in July following a decrease in June.
The Index now stands at 135.7, up from 124.3 in June. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of today’s business and labor market conditions – increased from 164.3 to 170.9. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term future outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 97.6 last month to 112.2 this month.
“After a sharp decline in June driven by an escalation in trade and tariff tensions, Consumer Confidence rebounded in July to its highest level this year,” says Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions. In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved. These high levels of confidence should continue to support robust spending in the near-term despite slower growth in GDP.”
Current conditions
Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions improved. Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased from 37.5% to 40.1%; however, those saying business conditions are “bad” also increased slightly, from 10.6% to 11.2%.
Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was also more favorable. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased from 44.0% to 46.2%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined from 15.8% to 12.8%.
Future expectations
Consumers were also more optimistic about the short-term outlook. The percentage expecting business conditions to be better six months from now increased from 19.1% to 24.0%, while those expecting business conditions to get worse declined from 12.6% to 8.7%.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 17.5% to 20.5%, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased from 13.9% to 11.5%. Regarding short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement increased from 20.5% to 24.7%, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined from 7.5% to 6.3%.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a probability-design random sample conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 18.
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
It’s the second consecutive month with the number of listings under contract increasing and the first pending-sale year-over-year increase after 17 months of declines.
WASHINGTON – Pending home sales continued to rise in June, marking two consecutive months of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Each of the four major regions recorded a rise in contract activity, with the West seeing the highest surge.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings – moved up 2.8% to 108.3 in June, an increase from 105.4 in May. Year-over-year contract signings jumped 1.6%, snapping a 17-month streak of annual decreases.
The 2.8% increase is likely the start of a positive trend for home sales, predicts NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
“Job growth is doing well, the stock market is near an all-time high and home values are consistently increasing,” says Yun. “When you combine that with the incredibly low mortgage rates, it is not surprising to now see two straight months of increases.”
The uptick in pending sales suggests that buyers are enthusiastic about the market and of the potential wealth gain via homeownership – but Yun says home builders still need to increase inventory.
“Homes are selling at a breakneck pace, in less than a month, on average, for existing homes and three months for newly constructed homes,” he says. “Furthermore, homeowners’ equity in real estate has doubled over the past six years to now nearly $16 trillion – but the number of potential buyers exceeds the number of homes available. We need to see sizable growth in inventory, particularly of entry-level homes, to assure wider access to homeownership.”
June pending home sales regional breakdown
All regional indices are up from May and from one year ago. The PHSI in the Northeast rose 2.7% to 94.5 in June and is now 0.9% higher than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index grew 3.3% to 103.6 in June – 1.7% greater than June 2018.
Pending home sales in the South increased 1.3% to an index of 125.7 in June – 1.4% higher than last June. The index in the West soared 5.4% in June to 96.8 and increased 2.5% year-over-year.
© 2019 Florida Realtors®
